Predicting the Future of Tech

Understanding new technology is important. This is obvious if you work in tech, where you can probably feel the ground shifting beneath your feet. But even if you ostensibly don't work in tech, economies and job markets are being affected by new technologies like never before.

Tech Matters to Everyone

It’s harder now to be a luddite than ever. In fact, writers like Kevin Kelly believe that luddites don’t really exist.

He’s followed Amish cultures that have traditionally avoided technology. It turns out they are full of innovations. 

Amish culture is filled with hacks and workarounds that allow them to maintain their cultural ideals while getting things done. For example, they have created complex pneumatic systems as a way to power tools and manufacturing while remaining off the electrical grid.

They've simply created their own forms of tech.

Technology is fundamental to our humanity, and understanding how it evolves is essential to our livelihood. So, how do we predict where tech is going?

Crazy Ideas

Nicholas Negroponte has shown a knack for predictions. He, along with the MIT Media Lab that he founded, accurately predicted things like car GPS navigation and touchscreen interfaces decades before their time.
What is he predicting now? Ingestible learning. A pill you can take that will instantly give you knowledge, like the ability to speak French. The common theme among all these predictions has been that they were all initially dismissed as unattainable.
An idea like this brings to mind what Paul Graham has said about startups.

Disruptive startups begin with an idea that seems not just wrong, but maybe even crazy. Most truly disruptive technologies are initially laughable. 

Non-Linear Progress

How do laughable ideas end up coming true? One reason is because progress isn’t linear. Humans are good at extrapolating things in a linear way, but when exponential curves like Moore’s Law come into play, our cognitive machinery sputters.

To say that computing power doubles every two years is simple enough. To really appreciate what that means for tech progress is near impossible.

While many debate whether Moore’s Law will hold over time, progress in any developmental sense is rarely linear. Look at how quickly human civilization has sprung up within earth’s history: certainly not a linear progress. It’s for this reason that ideas like runaway AI and The Singularity are worth some attention, despite seeming incredibly far off.

How to Predict the Future

So where does this leave us? How do we predict the future?
Mostly it leaves us in the dark; or at best in a dense fog. But here are some clarifying principles for predicting the future of tech:
One of the most important concepts to understand is the Power Law distribution. It is the notion of one or two big hits, with many, many misses. Think of the results of entering a lottery.
New technology follows the Power Law: most technology won’t make an impact, but the few things that break out result in giant, unpredictable paradigm shifts. Even the best tech investors put money into many failed startups.  The one investment in a company like Facebook pays for hundreds of failed investments.
It’s for this reason that one should be skeptical of “experts” in this arena. Experts often believe that with experience, predictions can get better, but when the world itself is changing, you can’t become more confident in predictions over time. Experience in fact often makes thinking less flexible. In the early 90s, writers at Wired predicted that the Internet would become like TV, only better. Quite the understatement.
The trick, then, is to remain steadfastly open minded and flexible. Have ideas as a template to guide one’s actions, but be prepared to hold them loosely.
Technology has a recursive effect on the people that use it. New technology can power more ideas. As such, it pays to try everything. Though many worry about the effect that tech has on our culture, it isn’t by itself good or bad. It’s an extension of our humanity. Innovations will happen in the area of making technology a more personal, sociable and emotional experience.
With the rate of change accelerating, predicting the future will become more difficult over time. But by remaining energetic, open-minded, and surrounding yourself with new ideas, you stand the best chance of staying slightly ahead of the very sharp curve.